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Evaluating the information content of earnings forecasts

Evaluating the information content of earnings forecasts

 Ashton, David.
 2018.
 p. 674-699. English
EarningsThu nhậpEarnings forecasts.Analysts’ forecasts.Dự đoán của các nhà phân tích.Dự đoán thu nhập.Earnings response coefficient.Hệ số phản hồi thu nhập.+ 3 từ khóa
Tác giả CN Ashton, David.
Nhan đề Evaluating the information content of earnings forecasts / David Ashton, Chau Trinh.
Thông tin xuất bản 2018.
Mô tả vật lý p. 674-699.
Tóm tắt This study develops a framework to compare the ability of alternative earnings forecast approaches to capture the market expectation of future earnings. Given prior evidence of analysts’ systematic optimistic bias, we decompose earnings surprises into analysts’ earnings surprises and adjustments based on alternative forecasting models. An equal market response to these two components indicates that the associated earnings forecast is a sufficient estimate of the market expectation of future earnings. To apply our framework, we examine four recent regression-based earnings forecasting models, alongside a simple earnings-based random walk model and analysts’ forecasts. Using the earnings forecasts of the model that satisfies our sufficiency condition, we identify a set of stocks for which the market is unduly pessimistic about future earnings. The investment strategy of buying and holding these stocks generates statistically significant abnormal returns. We offer an explanation as to why this and similar strategies might be successful.
Thuật ngữ chủ đề Earnings-Stock.
Thuật ngữ chủ đề Thu nhập-Cổ phiếu.
Từ khóa tự do Earnings forecasts.
Từ khóa tự do Analysts’ forecasts.
Từ khóa tự do Dự đoán của các nhà phân tích.
Từ khóa tự do Dự đoán thu nhập.
Từ khóa tự do Earnings response coefficient.
Từ khóa tự do Hệ số phản hồi thu nhập.
Từ khóa tự do Lựa chọn danh mục đầu tư.
Từ khóa tự do Market expectation of future earnings.
Từ khóa tự do Portfolio selection.
Nguồn trích Accounting and Business Research- Vol.48, No.6
MARC
Hiển thị đầy đủ trường & trường con
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100[1 ] |a Ashton, David.
245[1 0] |a Evaluating the information content of earnings forecasts / |c David Ashton, Chau Trinh.
260[ ] |c 2018.
300[1 0] |a p. 674-699.
520[ ] |a This study develops a framework to compare the ability of alternative earnings forecast approaches to capture the market expectation of future earnings. Given prior evidence of analysts’ systematic optimistic bias, we decompose earnings surprises into analysts’ earnings surprises and adjustments based on alternative forecasting models. An equal market response to these two components indicates that the associated earnings forecast is a sufficient estimate of the market expectation of future earnings. To apply our framework, we examine four recent regression-based earnings forecasting models, alongside a simple earnings-based random walk model and analysts’ forecasts. Using the earnings forecasts of the model that satisfies our sufficiency condition, we identify a set of stocks for which the market is unduly pessimistic about future earnings. The investment strategy of buying and holding these stocks generates statistically significant abnormal returns. We offer an explanation as to why this and similar strategies might be successful.
650[1 0] |a Earnings |x Stock.
650[1 0] |a Thu nhập |x Cổ phiếu.
653[0 ] |a Earnings forecasts.
653[0 ] |a Analysts’ forecasts.
653[0 ] |a Dự đoán của các nhà phân tích.
653[0 ] |a Dự đoán thu nhập.
653[0 ] |a Earnings response coefficient.
653[0 ] |a Hệ số phản hồi thu nhập.
653[0 ] |a Lựa chọn danh mục đầu tư.
653[0 ] |a Market expectation of future earnings.
653[0 ] |a Portfolio selection.
773[ ] |t Accounting and Business Research |g Vol.48, No.6
890[ ] |a 0 |b 0 |c 0 |d 0